Insurance risk is the risk of a change in value due to deviations between actual and expected insurance costs. This means the risk that actual outcome deviates from the expected outcome due to, for example, a higher claims frequency, larger average claims costs, one or more major claims or higher outcome of insurance costs compared with estimated provisions.

Insurance risk primarily comprises premium and reserve level risk and disaster risk.

Premium risk

Premium risk is the risk of losses due to incorrect pricing, risk concentration, taking out wrong or insufficient reinsurance or a random fluctuation in the claims frequency and/or claims amount. The risk in the portfolio of the Group’s insurance operations is well-balanced and mainly comprises a large number of insurance with low, individual risks. Concentration risk in the overall portfolio is also considered to be low since the Group’s insurance portfolio is highly diversified in terms of both products and geography.

The Group manages and limits premium and disaster risk by the Board issuing policies regulating, for example, maximum retention and a framework for premium pricing. The Group carries out regular detailed reviews of premium pricing and continuously assesses the profitability of established insurance arrangements and changes in tariffs and premiums levels. To further limit premium and disaster risk, reinsurance has been taken out in the risk portfolios with a higher risk exposure to major and chain-reaction claims. Reinsurers are selected based on factors including expertise and financial position and comply with the policies established by the board of the insurance company. The Group continuously reviews the entire reinsurance programme to ensure that all risks are covered as required.

Reserve level risk

Reserve level risk refers to the risk of variations in the time and amount of claims payments. Provisions for unearned premiums is intended to cover the expected claim costs and operating costs for the remaining term of valid insurance contracts. As compensation is only paid after a loss has occurred, it is also necessary to make provisions for claims outstanding. Technical provisions are the total of unearned premiums and unexpired risks, and claims outstanding. Technical provisions always contain a certain degree of uncertainty as the provisions include an estimate of the size and frequency of future claim payments. The uncertainty of technical provisions is usually higher for new portfolios for which complete settlement statistics are not yet available and for portfolios in which final adjustment of claims takes place following a long period of time.

The Group manages and minimises reserve level risk by means of the Board’s policies on reserve level risk and technical provision risks and provisioning instructions that govern the calculation of technical provisions. The actuarial assumptions for determining the provisions for claims outstanding are based on historical claims and exposures that are known at the reporting date. The models used are clearly recognised actuarial models such as chain ladder or other loss development factor models. The outcome corresponds to a provision that covers the expected future payments for all claims incurred, even claims that have not yet been reported. Provision for unearned premiums are calculated individually for each insurance contract. The computation uses experience-based factors, the starting point being how the claim costs are incurred over the period of insurance.

A straight-line (pro rata) earnings model is used for insurance risks with a term of 12 months or less. A provision for unexpired risks is made if the provision for unearned premiums is deemed to be insufficient to cover the Group’s liabilities for the remaining terms of valid insurance contracts.

There is always some uncertainty associated with estimates of technical provisions. The estimates are based on facts relating to historical claims and assessments of future trends. Because the majority of the Group’s claims are short-term in nature (for most portfolios, claims are concluded within 2 to 12 months from the claim date), the risk of negative developments due to factors such as future claims inflation is reduced.

The Group’s Actuary function reports directly to the Board annually or more frequently in connection with the preparation of the annual accounts.

Disaster risk

Disaster risk is the risk that a single event would generate claims on a large number of policies. This risk is considered less likely since the insurance portfolio is well diversified. The Group’s largest proportion of insurance is individual product insurance policies for consumer goods, which do not have any exposure to natural disasters, such as hurricanes, flooding, hail, earthquakes or subsidence.